查看完整版本: 英国房价“可能大幅下跌”

英国房价“可能大幅下跌”

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<DIV class=storyheadline>英国房价“可能大幅下跌”<!-- end_title --></DIV>
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<DIV><IMG height=152 alt=房屋 src="http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/images/2006/11/20061122144322_42343292_thatchedbbc203.jpg" width=203></DIV></TD></TR>
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<TD class=caption>英国房价在过去十年涨了二倍</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- st_story -->
<DIV class=storytext><B>摩根．斯坦利银行首席英国经济分析师麦尔斯说：英国高昂的房价有可能在未来一、二年内大幅下跌。</B></DIV>
<P class=storytext>麦尔斯曾担任过英国政府分期付款市场方面的顾问。他说：虽然在过去１０年内房价以超过一般通胀率２倍速度增长，但可能很快就低于一般通胀率。</P>
<P class=storytext>不过，他表示预测房价何时会下跌非常困难。他说：“房价出现实质性的大幅下滑可能在相对来说不远的未来发生，但也有可能在未来的一、二年内就发生。”</P>
<P class=storytext><!-- end_story -->三年前，麦尔斯曾为英国财相布朗写了一个关于英国房屋借贷市场的报告。</P>
<P class=storytext>在他最新的报告中，他预测目前英国房价的强劲势头可能很快就结束。</P>
<P class=storytext><B>警告银行</B></P>
<P class=storytext>本月早些时候，英国会计公司PricewaterhouseCoopers预测说，英国房价在２０１０年下跌的概率为１／３。</P>
<P class=storytext>上周，英国金融服务管理局(Financial Service Authority) 警告银行：他们必须做好准备，一旦房价下跌４０％，他们能够承受这样的冲击。</P>
<P class=storytext>不过，今年英国房屋市场再次加温，房间比一年前又提高了8%。</P>
<P class=storytext>英国土地登记处的最新数据表示：英格兰和威尔士的平均房价已超过２０万英镑。</P>
<P class=storytext>麦尔斯分析过去１０年推动英国房价上涨的因素包括：消费者对房价上涨的心理预期，人们的收入增加，人口急剧增加，低利率造成的低借贷成本等。</P>
<P class=storytext>他表示：这些因素中最重要的是对房价上涨每年上涨１０％的心理预期，这个因素对过去１０年房价过分上涨的影响居1/3至一半。</P>
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我要和他赌下, 苏格兰的房价5年内都不会降. 下跌的概率是1/3, 也就是说上涨或是平稳的概率是2/3, 远远高于下跌啊.

House prices rising say surveyors

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<DIV class=sh>House prices rising say surveyors </DIV></DIV></TD></TR>
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<DIV class=cap>Antrim in Northern Ireland, where house prices are rising fastest</DIV></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IIMA --><!-- S SF --><B>The housing market has shrugged off the Bank of England's increases in interest rates, says the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).</B>
<P>Its latest survey of members who work as estate agents shows that UK house prices rose in March, for the 17th month in a row.
<P>Although enquiries from new buyers fell again, they did so at a slower pace than before.
<P>The RICS says this shows the housing market is still in "rude health". <!-- E SF -->
<P>"The housing market has absorbed the initial interest rate barrage, but history tells us that further rate rises could knock confidence and activity significantly later in the year," warned RICS spokesman, Jeremy Leaf.
<P>"However, house prices are unlikely to fall in the short term while the economic outlook remains robust," he added.
<P><B>Borrowing costs</B>
<P>The Bank of England has raised interest rates three times since last August.
<P>Although its main aim was to restrain inflation in the wider economy rather than in the housing market specifically, many commentators had expected property price inflation to ease off quite quickly.
<P>So far though this has not been the case.
<P>According to the Halifax bank the annual rate of house price inflation rose to 11% in March, and the number of new mortgages being approved for house purchase has remained stable in recent months.
<P>The RICS report confirms the view of other analysts that the areas seeing the largest increases in house prices are Northern Ireland and London.</P></FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

不好意思, 转载了一篇英文的, 大家看起来费力点, 不过学习英语啊.
大意是说 房价还是要涨, 因为英国经济增长很稳定的说.